Improvements in ice-sheet sea-level projections

The IMBIE past assessments have also been used to outline the importance of providing robust ice sheet mass balance estimates, in particular to improve predictions of the ice sheets’ contribution to global sea-level rise:

Antarctica and Greenland mass change is the most uncertain source of sea-level rise and thus developing ice-sheet models able to closely reproduce satellite observations of ice sheet mass loss is key to better predict sea-level rise. During the past decade, new satellite missions and refined processing methods of satellite data have contributed to the production of a large number of satellite-based ice sheet mass balance estimates. By combining these observations into a single reconciled estimate, IMBIE demonstrated that when using a common framework, these observations agree within their respective uncertainties, showing a three-fold increase in ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland over the satellite era. Similarly, ice sheet models have been significantly improved for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, with the development of a new generation of ice sheet models capable of reproducing the rapid ice dynamical response of the ice sheets apparent in satellite observations. Together, satellite observations and ice sheet models can help better predict sea-level rise.